This Champions League tie is pretty much over as a contest with Real Madrid leading by a 3-0 score-line. However, Atletico are not the sort of team to lie down and make it easy for the opposition so I expect a competitive match here.
Atletico recovered from their Champions League loss to Real Madrid by beating Eibar at the weekend, keeping them in the top three in La Liga.
Last week’s match against Real bucked the trend for Atletico as their usually solid defence conceded three goals. However, it was back to business as usual at the weekend as they recorded yet another clean sheet – their fourth in five La Liga games. As mentioned on previous tips, Atleti are a threat going forward. Having said that, they have scored just once in their last two in all competitions. It is this comparative lack of killer instinct that separates them from the top two in Spain.
Diego Simeone’s side have been excellent at home in recent times with just one defeat and seven wins in their last eight in all competitions. They have also kept four clean sheets in their last five at Vicente Calderon whilst, in the Champions League, they have not lost at home since September 2015.
Real capped off their Champions League win over Atleti with a 4-0 win over Tony Adams’s Granada side at the weekend, putting them level on points with Barcelona at the top of the table with a game in hand. It also extended their winning run to four in all competitions.
The Galacticos are absolutely fantastic in the final third, as demonstrated by the fact they have found the back of the net in every single match in all competitions this campaign whilst they have also scored 15 times in their last four games. One thing that perhaps goes under the radar a bit for Real is their defence which has conceded a respectable 39 in 35 league matches as well as kept two consecutive clean sheets coming into this match.
Zinedine Zidane’s men have been sublime on the road in their last few matches with nine wins on the spin in all competitions, averaging an incredible 3.44 goals per game in the process. Additionally, Real have not lost any of their last six Champions League matches on the road.
I am not one for predicting derby matches and, although Real are the favourites here, given that this is at the Calderon, this could go Atletico’s way quite easily. Having said this, it will be extremely hard for the home side to overturn a 3-0 deficit and go through, especially without an away goal to their name. The hosts are expected to go out, but the bet that stands out is ‘2-3 Total Goals’ at 11/10. This bet would have won in each of the last four meetings between the two sides as well as the last two at the Calderon.
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