Rayo Vallecano might not be the biggest name in La Liga, but they certainly know how to cause some of the big teams problems. And the fact that they scored two goals against Real Madrid in their last game will give them confidence. The problem today is that Atletico Madrid, with their near perfect defence, are a much tougher nut to crack. I think that Diego Simeone’s team will be very focused on next week’s Champions League semi-final second leg, so today they’ll try to score early and hold the winning score without exerting themselves too much. This is why Atletico Madrid to win the first half looks a good bet.
To go further we can take Atletico to score in both halves. Rayo will go forward and risk being countered, as they always do, and this is exactly what the Atletico Madrid players will expect. This will be just the opportunity some of the less regular Atletico players will be hoping for, as it’s likely some of the big names will be rested. The defensive line of the away team is far from perfect, and Atleti will want to increase their goal difference, since they are level with Barcelona in the league.