Improving Aston Villa host struggling Wigan Athletic in one of the 3pm Championship kick-offs on Saturday.
Aston Villa may have lost their first match under new boss Steve Bruce last Saturday but it can still be said that Villa are on an upward trajectory following his appointment – although it could not get much worse!
The Villains have certainly become a more solid side since ex-Birmingham City manager Bruce took the job and his team had not conceded more than once in a match prior to the 2-0 loss against Leeds last weekend and even that second goal came in the 94th minute as Villa pushed for an equaliser. However, it must also be noted that Villa have still kept just one clean sheet since Bruce’s arrival. Speaking to the media a couple of weeks ago, Bruce stated that he is targeting improvements to his back-line in the January transfer window.
The Lions have been in fantastic form at Villa Park since the 55-year-old arrived in October. They drew their first match at home under Bruce but have subsequently won their other three games. Villa fans have certainly taken to Bruce and enjoy the success he is bringing – even if it is in a rather conservative fashion – and the locals will certainly expect a victory against Wigan on Saturday.
Wigan are really struggling and have been unable to put any sort of consistent run together after their promotion from League One last season. They suffered a horrendous start and have been unable to rectify it. New manager Warren Joyce has had a bit more luck with The Lactics since taking over in early November but results have still not been great – just four points taken from a possible 12. Fortunately for him they are still just two points from safety so are not cut adrift by any means.
Unlike a few years ago under Roberto Martinez, goals have been the problem for Wigan. They are the lowest scorers in the Championship with just 16 goals in 19 matches. Defensively they are actually OK with just 21 goals conceded. If you compare their record with 9th place Derby County (17 For, 13 Against) you can say that perhaps Wigan have just been unlucky – losing a lot of games 1-0 rather than winning them 1-0.
However, it is certainly form at the DW Stadium that has been their downfall with their record on the road actually looking like one of the best in the Championship in recent weeks. After losing five on the bounce away from home, Wigan have recovered brilliantly and are yet to lose any of their last five on the road – conceding just three. This will give them a lot of confidence when they visit Villa Park on Saturday.
Although Wigan will have belief when visiting the Midlands on Saturday, I think Bruce is too wily a manager to let them win and it’s hard not to back the hosts at 5/6. Not only that, but take into account their home form of three straight victories and you can see why they are favourites. 5/6 is actually a pretty good price.
In fact, I would push this even further and go ‘Aston Villa to Win to Nil’ at 17/10. Although they struggle to get clean sheets, Villa face a Wigan side who have a lot of problems in the final third, so if they are to keep a clean sheet in any match, it will be this one.
Finally, ‘2-3 Total Goals’, at 21/20, is another good bet. Although I expect Villa to win, it will not be a thrashing by any means against a Wigan side capable of being a bit more solid on the road.
See more Championship tips here.