West Brom beat Arsenal 2-1 at the Hawthorns earlier this season, despite only having one shot-on-target. That’s proven a familiar theme for Tony Pulis’ side this season with the Baggies boss overseeing one of the Premier League’s most efficient outfits.
It won’t win prizes for aesthetics but WBA’s prioritisation on organisation and defensive structure has been a successful base for the Black Country boys. The Baggies have averaged just 0.98 goals-per-game during the 51 games under Pulis’ watch but their 21 (41%) clean sheets return has kept the club competitive.
Heading to the capital on Thursday night, West Brom sit 10 points clear of the relegation zone with the safety of 40-points already reached. However, I don’t expect the visitors to be on the beach, knowing Pulis’ stickler for hard work, attitude and aggression.
The guests have suffered just one loss by a margin of two goals or more in their last 21 Premier League encounters, including a recent 2-1 reverse at Manchester City when Albion actually took a surprise early lead. Across the past 21 fixtures, West Brom have also shipped fewer goals than opponents Arsenal.
Over the course of this season’s campaign, the Baggies have lost by two or more goals on just four occasions and only one of their past six encounters with the Londoners have seen WBA suffer a defeat by more than a one-goal margin.
Goals are Albion’s main problem. The away side have scored just 12 goals on their travels – only Newcastle (10) and Aston Villa (11) have notched fewer – and West Brom’s average of just 2.79 shots-on-target per-match is comfortably a divisional low. It’s a stat that drops to just 2.31 shots-on-target per-match when away from the Hawthorns.
The visitors have returned a solitary success in 11 away league games now (W1-D5-L5) but it’s worth pointing out that Pulis’ charges have held Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea and West Ham on the road and you’d suspect the Welsh capped wonder will be targeting a direct and physical approach following Arsenal’s struggles against Andy Carroll in a recent Premier League battle.
Since Pulis arrived at the club, Albion have only lost five of their 25 away clashes by two goals or more and with all the above to hand, I’m keen to support West Brom with a +2 handicap at 1.91.