Larnaca managed to scrape a valuable win in their first leg match against Cork City. However, given they are such strong favourites in this tie, they are still under a fair bit of pressure going into Thursday’s return fixture.
The Cypriot side have been in good form in this second quarter of 2017 and are yet to lose a match in all competitions, including friendlies, since 12th April. Larnaca also have the advantage of playing a decent amount of European football over the years, although, it must also be pointed out that they have reached the group stage of a European competition on just one occasion in their entire history.
Last season’s Cypriot First Division runners-up have been excellent at the back for the last couple of seasons. Last term they conceded just 19 goals in 26 games, following up from their fantastic Goals Against record of 17 from the 2015/16 season – the best in the division for that campaign. Furthermore, they have kept five clean sheets in their last six outings in all competitions, including friendlies.
Kitrinoprasinoi are a very strong side on home soil with no defeats in their last seven competitive outings at the AEK Arena. Additionally, they lost just one league match on their own patch last campaign. In terms of the Europa League, they also have a good home record with just one defeat in their last five, keeping three clean sheets in the process.
Cork City are in this season’s Europa League after finishing second in the League of Ireland Premier Division in the 2016 season. However, it looks like they will claim the title with ease in this 2017 campaign as they are currently 15 points clear at the top of the table after 21 matches, with a game in hand over nearest challengers Dundalk.
Unsurprisingly, the Rebel Army have been fantastic in both boxes this campaign with 57 goals scored and just 10 conceded. Additionally, they have found the back of the net in every single league game since 24th September 2016. However, they have only kept one clean sheet in their last five Europa League outings.
John Caulfield’s men generally have an easy time on their travels in domestic football but, on the European stage, they struggle somewhat. This is demonstrated by the fact they have won just twice on their Europa League travels since July 2005.
Larnaca are the favourites here, and with good reason. Even though Cork City do have a decent attack, we saw in the first leg that a strong defence such as Larnaca’s can stifle them – Cork only had one shot on target at Turner’s Cross last week. With this second tie being played at the AEK Arena, where Larnaca have been terrific at the back in recent years, I think the home side should come out with a victory to nil here. The price on that is a very reasonable 13/8.