Youth teams of Terek and Anzhi play an abnormal match

Thomas
Giles

On Friday the 1st of April, a series of matches were played in the Youth Championship of Russia. Among them we saw a hotly contested Caucasian confrontation between Terek and Anzhi.

 

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The youth teams of Terek and Anzhi played an abnormal match.

 

We single it out, not because of the high quality football, but for the heat, passion and emotion.
According to the bookmakers, the most likely outcome was a draw, as shown in this screenshot.

As you can see, the odds on a draw at post-Soviet space bookmaker Marathonbet began to fall at 11:31 with the most dramatic collapse coming in the first half hour. The odds on a draw from this point on dropped but not as quickly and arrived at a final figure of 2.61.

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At another very well-known (albeit not as reputable as Marathonbet) bookmaker, 1xBet, the odds fell substantially. Two hours before the start of the match the probability of a draw in this derby was estimated at 2.18.

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Note: The match started at 15:00 but this screenshot shows the match starting at 14:00. The thing to do is to watch your account settings belt, from which this picture was taken.

So what was the case with the foreign bookmakers? Odds movement also took place but not as significantly as it did at ‘home’ (post-Soviet space) bookmakers.

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In general, a draw gives very little reason to lower rates. A draw is least likely from a mathematical point of view and least profitable for each of the teams taking part in the match, as each team comes out to win. Of course, there are times in tournaments when a draw is favorable, because in this case, both teams can take part in the next stage of the tournament. This has happened at the Euros, and in the top leagues.

In the case of the match between Terek and Anzhi, we are dealing with two Premier League teams. In this competition (the Youth Championship), they play young players that, from a common sense point of view, will give 100% in every match to ensure that they get themselves noticed by the first team staff.
On the other hand, it is a tournament without motivation in terms of results because they depend entirely on the results of the first team. If the first team is relegated then their youth team also leave their respective competition. In the Youth Championship, the first placed team are not given a place in a European competition and do not speak to the media. Therefore, the competition for under-21 teams is a double-edged sword.

Looking at the match between Terek and Anzhi, like any other game (taking into account the above stated advantages and disadvantages of the Youth Championship), we come to the conclusion that this fall in odds on a draw is abnormal. The only factor which possibly explains the reason for the flow of money to this outcome is the dubious reputation of the Caucasus clubs in terms of ‘purity’ and sporting nature in the matches they have contested previously.

I almost forgot. The match ended 1: 1 and both goals were scored from the penalty spot.

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