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UFC Vegas 44 Rob Font vs Jose Aldo Predictions and Betting Tips
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Aldo’s always dangerous ?
[ @JoseAldoJunior | #UFCVegas44 | Saturday | Early Prelims 6:30???? | Main Card 10???? | Live on @ESPN & E+ ] pic.twitter.com/1O2pQnN5Uf
— UFC (@ufc) December 2, 2021
Rob Font vs Jose Aldo
Brazil’s Jose Aldo (30-7) fights in his fifth fight in the Bantamweight division, currently ranked fifth in the division he takes on fourth ranked Rob Font (19-4). The betting suggests this will be a close affair with both fighters also securing recent wins against the division’s elite.
Aldo has won his last two fights by decision against fellow countryman Pedro Munhoz and a man many are touting as a future world champion in Marlon “Chito” Vera. Before this, however, he lost his last three, but one of these was his last fight in the Featherweight division against Alexander Volkanovski who would later go on to win the title.
Including his loss to Conor McGregor in 2015, Aldo has compiled a 5-6 record which in normal circumstances should be off putting. However, all but one of those losses have come against champions. All other fights are against top contenders including a win over former Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.
Font has won his last four fights and is 9-3 overall within the UFC. However, during that time, he has fought only one former champion and that was his win last time out against Cody Garbrandt by decision.
Both fighters have common opponents in Marlon Moraes and Pedro Munhoz, however, a reliance on MMA math probably gives more questions than answers, Font beat Moraes but Aldo lost to him, Aldo beat Munhoz but Font lost to him.
In the UFC’s lower weight divisions fighters age tends to be a disadvantage the older you get and that is what some of the talk is about when it comes to 35-year-old Aldo. However, many may not realise that Font is just one year younger, but Aldo’s 37 professional fights compared to Font’s 23 represents more miles on the clock or more top caliber fight experience depending on your outlook.
Prediction
Weighing up the prospects of both fighters and looking at their past records you can see why the bookies have this one priced pretty close.
This should certainly be an interesting fight with Font’s boxing heavy striking attack up against Aldo’s mixed striking. Aldo is likely to attack the legs, affecting Font’s footwork before aiming shots to the body and the head.
Aldo only loses against the best of the best, Font is yet to prove himself to be at that level. Aldo is not often the underdog, and we believe there is value in that bet.
For both fighters, four of their last five fights have reached the judges scorecards. We believe this one will be no different and predict the fight will go the distance.
vs Jeremy Stevens at UFC Calgary
[ 9/10 | #UFCVegas44 ] pic.twitter.com/SxNyp6YuyD
— UFC (@ufc) December 3, 2021
Alex Morono vs Mickey Gall
For our second fight we are looking at what is scheduled to be the first fight of the main card as Alex Morono (20-7 1NC) takes on Mickey Gall (7-3).
Both fighters have had mixed levels of success with Morono going 3-2 in his last five, while Gall since suffering his first loss in 2017 has exchanged wins and losses going 3-3 including that loss to Randy Brown.
Morono has co-headlined a card before when he defeated legend Donald Cerrone by TKO in May this year before beating David Zawada in September. Prior to that Morono lost by decision to Anthony Pettis.
Former Lightweight champion Pettis has fought as low as the Featherweight division before and is clearly undersized for the Welterweight division, yet he gave Morono problems. Pettis since moved on to the PFL where he is currently on a two-fight losing streak.
The win against Cerrone represented Cerrone’s fifth loss in six fights (the other being a No Contest) so though Morono has fought some top names they look to be names no longer in their prime.
Gall has also found himself in the spotlight finding fame on Dana White’s reality show “Looking for a fight” and subsequently getting signed to UFC. He fought and beat handily professional wrestler CM Punk in his second UFC fight before beating young prospect Sage Northcutt.
Since then though Gall has exchanged wins and losses and is looking to win two straight against Morono. Six of Gall’s seven wins have come by submission and all by rear naked choke so this will be something to watch for should the fight go to the ground.
Both fighters are Jiu-Jitsu black belts though Morono doesn’t often initiate the ground game in his fights.
Prediction
The betting is weighted heavy in Morono’s favour with him priced at 4/9 compared to Gall’s 7/4. According to the betting William Hill believes Morono would win on average over two out of three fights over Gall.
We believe the fighters abilities are more closely matched than that and can see Gall winning this one.
The fighter’s respective Jiu-Jitsu skills could cancel each other out, this being the case we also predict that Gall gets the win by decision.
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