UFC VEGAS 42 Betting Tips and Predictions
Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez predictions
This fight has the makings of a classic with two lethal strikers throwing down inside the Octagon. Rodriguez (13 wins, 2 losses, 1 no contest) can hit you from any angle with some of the most diverse striking seen inside the UFC, whereas Holloway (22 wins, 6 losses) is a very proficient boxer and the self-proclaimed best boxer in UFC – proclaiming this during his last fight against Calvin Kattar no less.
Mexico’s hope for their first Mexican born UFC champion, Rodriguez, comes into this fight after an over two-year absence. His last victory was a decision win over Jeremy Stephens in October 2019. The one knock on Rodriguez is inactivity. Rodriguez has only fought three times in the past three years and one of them was a 15 second no contest against Stephens which led to his rematch and win one month later.
Out of his ten UFC fights to date, Rodriguez has only lost once and that was to Frankie Edgar so there’s no shame in that. The other former champion he fought, and beat, was a BJ Penn in the middle of a seven-fight losing streak so we shouldn’t place too much weight on that.
Holloway will represent by far the biggest challenge Rodriguez has come up against. Will Rodriguez live up to his potential or will ring rust play a factor? Rodriguez is priced at 9/2 with William Hill.
On the other hand, Holloway is priced as a very short 1/7 favourite. I believe he is a short price not only due to Rodriguez’s inactivity but also due to his unbelievable show of dominance against Kattar in January when Holloway threw over 700 strikes and won a decision by scores of 50-43, 50-43 and 50-42.
Prior to his win against Kattar, Holloway has lost three of his last four fights. However, two of them against current UFC Featherweight Champion, Alexander Volkanovski, were very close and it has been argued that Holloway could have won them both. The other was a loss to Dustin Poirier when Holloway briefly moved up to the Lightweight division. The fact that Holloway is as short as 1/7 despite this run of results shows the respect the bookies have for Holloway and what an elite fighter he truly is.
The outright odds do not reflect Rodriguez’s ability and I believe Holloway is way too short a price, though he should still be an odds-on favourite.
Out of Rodriguez’s eight UFC wins so far, five have come by decision with the other three by KO/TKO. If you believe Rodriguez will win, I’d stick to the outright price of 9/2 as Rodriguez has almost an even number of decision wins compared to knockouts.
With Holloway’s last five fights reaching a judge’s decision and Holloway being clear favourite in the betting, Holloway to win by decision looks a more acceptable price of 11/10.
If after considering both fighters, you are still unsure on an outright winner, 4/5 for the fight to go the distance regardless could be the bet for you.
Holloway to win by decision at 11/10
Fight to go the distance at 4/5
Don’t forget to set those clocks for tomorrow ⏰
? Prelims kick off at 1???? & the main card gets going at 4???? all on #ESPNPlus!
— UFC (@ufc) November 13, 2021
Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima predictions
In the co-main event, two Heavyweight powerhouses go toe-to-toe as Rothwell battles De Lima. This one could go either way with neither fighter being able to put together a sizable winning streak recently. In fact, De Lima, after starting his UFC career with two wins and a loss has gone win, loss, win loss in his nine fights since.
Rothwell, going into his 53rd professional MMA fight (39 wins, 13 losses) has double the fight experience of De Lima (18 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw). Both fighters are coming off wins in their last fights. For De Lima it was a unanimous decision against Maurice Greene in May this year. Rothwell’s win came just two weeks later as he beat Chris Barnett by submission by guillotine choke in the second round.
Rothwell has gone 3-3 in his last six fights. Interestingly, both fighters have common opponents as both have faced off against Stefan Struve and Ovince Saint Preux. De Lima lost against both whereas Rothwell beat both. If MMA math was a guaranteed calculation, then bet on Rothwell all day at 8/13. Fortunately for fight fans – and unfortunately for bettors – it is never as simple as that.
Both fighters have shown they can win in a variety of ways and this fight is a tough one to pick. I firmly believe if you made these two fight each other ten times, they would win five each. Based only on that logic, De Lima should be taken at 13/10 as those odds reflect a greater than even payout.
This one could really go either way though and I believe betting on the method of result is going to be the best way to bet on this one.
Rothwell has an underrated submission game and has started to invest more in this in the later years of his career. All five of De Lima’s UFC losses have come by submission. Rothwell to win by submission is 7/2 with William Hill.
Though most of De Lima’s wins across his whole career have come by KO/TKO, two of his last three – including his last win – have come by decision. Rothwell’s last four losses have come by decision, including losses against former UFC Heavyweight champions Junior Dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski, showing grit and determination under true adversity. If you believe De Lima will win then backing De Lima to do so by decision at 9/2 may be the way to go.
Rothwell to win by submission at 7/2
De Lima to win by decision at 9/2
De Lima to win 13/10
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