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Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka: Prediction and Betting Tips

15:00, May 15 2021
Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka prediction for Saturday’s Semi-Final of the Roma Open in Rome, Italy. World number three Rafael Nadal will face surprise Semi-Finalist American Reilly Opelka. Follow on for our free prediction and betting tips.

Rafael Nadal looking for his 13th final in Rome

Two wins in very high-intensity matches in 16 hours, saw Rafael Nadal reach his 12th Semi-Final in Rome after beating Shapovalov in three sets on Thursday and Zverev in two sets on Friday. The 34-year-old world number three avenged his loss against Zverev last week in the Quarter-Final in Madrid last week.

The nine-time champion Nadal has never lost at this stage in Rome before. The Spaniard is in great form as he was able to deal with Shapovalov and Zverev in a great way. Despite winning in two sets, Zverev made it very hard for Nadal in their Quarter-final match. Nadal’s return on the German’s second serve was the difference as he won just 40% of the points behind them.

Reilly Opelka may be a dangerous opponent for Nadal

Reaching his first Semi-Final in Masters 1000 tournament, Reilly Opelka had a great run to the last four of the Rome Open. The big-serving American is not broken this week yet and has served a whopping 77 aces in four matches. Opelka obviously relies on his serve and it will be the key weapon against one of the best returners on tour.

In his Quarter-Final match against Delbonis, Opelka saved all four break points against him and was impressive in his groundstrokes as well hitting 41 winners. The world number 47 will a tough opponent for Nadal if he continues his form against the Spaniard.

Key Stats

  • Nadal has played 73 games in three matches in Rome with an average of 24.3 games per match
  • Opelka has played 87 games in four matches in Rome with an average of 21.7 games per match
  • Nadal has won 64% of the points behind his first serve
  • Opelka has won 81% of the points behind his serve
  • Nadal won 34% of his breakpoints
  • Opelka won 70% of his breakpoints

Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Rafael Nadal has all the experience needed to face the big-serving American Reilly Opelka. It will all come down to Nadal’s reading of Opelka’s first serve and the American’s 1st serve percentage. Nadal won’t have any trouble in the rallies as he has the ability to dictate them.

We think if the American keeps his nerves and the form he’s been in all week, he can pose danger to Nadal and win quite a lot of games.

It will be hard for Nadal to break Opelka’s serve but the world number three has faced so many big-serving players in his career and knows how to deal with them

We predict there will be over 20 games in this match as Nadal hasn’t been winning his matches easily.

Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka Betting Tips

Over 20.5 Games 1.83 at Bet365

Reilly Opelka to win over 8.5 games 2.00 at Bet365

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