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MMA express, UFC fight night 205. We hit with a total odds of 5.90: 23/04/22
Marcin Prachnio – Filipe Lins
Filipe Lins had his last fight in 93 kg in August 2017, losing to the reigning Bellator champion Vadim Nemkov. After that, he performed well in the PFL, winning the organization’s heavyweight tournament, and earned an invitation from the world’s top promotion.
However, things are not rosy here: two defeats in two fights held against Andrey Orlovsky and Tanner Boser. Moreover, the Brazilian lost to the latter by knockout in the first round. It is also worth noting the long downtime without fights; Filipe returns to the octagon after a two-year absence and in a lighter weight category.
‘Marcin Prachnio began his career in the UFC to match his next opponent – with three early defeats. The Polish athlete was close to being fired but could find the strength to recover and reach a new level. Marcin is much more tactically competent in recent fights, not throwing himself at the opponent and not letting him hit hard on himself. We especially note the victory over a very strong Thai boxer Khalil Rountree, who, after losing to the Pole, scored an excellent move himself.
Prachnio is now in the best shape of his career, while Filipe Lins is clearly on the decline.
Prediction: Prachnio will win.
Dean Barry – Mike Jackson
Dean Barry performed well in the Titan FC and UAE Warriors organizations, where he got four wins by knockout in the first five minutes, and a signing to the world’s main promotion was not long in coming.
Mike Jackson’s finest hour was a duel against wrestling legend Phil Brooks, nicknamed CM Punk, at UFC 225 in June 2018. The American won the fight via unanimous decision, but Brooks’ level as an MMA fighter didn’t match the event’s status. Moreover, the fight’s result was subsequently changed to “no contest” due to a positive test for marijuana. In addition to the battle with Brooks, the track record of the American athlete only includes his debut fight in the UFC against Mickey Gall, which he lost by choke in the first minute.
Dean Barry is the biggest bookmaker favorite on the entire card, which is completely unsurprising, given the deficient level of the opponent. Mike Jackson can hardly be called a professional fighter. Therefore, we see a quick knockout from the favorite as the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Barry wins in rounds 1-2 at 2.15.
Clay Guida – Claudio Puelles
One can only admire the sporting longevity of Clay Guida, who, at a venerable age for a lightweight, can perform at the highest level. However, the list of opponents defeated in the past three years includes only veterans who have long passed the peak of their sports form: Leonardo Santos, Michael Johnson, and BJ Penn. Stylistically, the American has not changed much over the years. Wrestling remains his forte, where, however, he often falls for tricks. A typical defeat for Guida is a guillotine choke during the next takedown.
Claudio Puelles is 14 years younger than his opponent. It is a basic wrestler who, as a rule, seeks to take the fight by decision at the expense of controlling the opponent on the ground. The Peruvian won 55% of his victories by painful and suffocating techniques, but only two of them won in the UFC.
Both opponents have excellent groundwork skills, so neither will have a significant advantage on this battlefield. We believe that the winner of this confrontation will determine the standing position. Both Guida and Puelles take a hit well, so we don’t expect an early end to the fight here.
Prediction: Fight to go the distance 1.50.
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