Millwall v Watford Betting Tips: League One side can continue their cup run

Jan 27 2017

League One side Millwall knocked out Premier League AFC Bournemouth in the last round of the FA Cup and their reward is another match against top flight opposition in the form of Watford.

Millwall have been on a pretty good run in recent weeks and have not lost any of their last seven matches in all competitions, however, their last victory was that shock win against Bournemouth and since then they have only managed draws in two league matches, placing them 9th in the table. Having said that, they are only five points off the play-offs so a good run in the second half of the season would give them a real chance of a top-six finish.

The fact that the Lions have scored 42 and conceded 40 in the league of course leads you to believe that their matches involve plenty of goals. However, you would really only be half right as their last two matches have brought about 0-0 and 1-1 draws. It was certainly scorelines earlier on in the season that make Millwall’s goal statistics look so crazy.

In rather strange fashion, yet something we see so often, in a bid to improve the defensive side of their game, Millwall have somewhat lost their potency in front of goal.

The Den is known as one of the hardest places to go in English football and Neil Harris’s men have certainly made it tough for teams to visit in recent weeks with his side winning their last four home matches on the bounce. Furthermore, they have lost just three times in the league at The Den, conceding just 12 goals – fewer than Rochdale (13) who have the second best home record in the division.

Watford have been having a pretty torrid time recently and are in real danger of slipping into the relegation dogfight following a run of no wins in their last seven Premier League matches and just two league victories since beating Hull City on 29th October. The Hornets overcame Championship opposition in the form of Burton Albion to get this far but a trip to The Den and League One Millwall is arguably a tougher ask.

After being so reliable in the final third for the last couple of years, Watford have been pretty toothless in front of goal this season having netted just 25 times in the league whilst they have also failed to register in two of their last three Premier League matches.

Unfortunately, they don’t exactly have the most solid defence to bail them out of trouble and in fact, Watford’s record of 38 conceded is the fifth worst in the league. Additionally, they have only kept four clean sheets in the league so far this campaign and just one since that aforementioned victory against Hull.

To further compound their woes going into this cup tie, Walter Mazzarri’s team have been awful on the road and their recent draw against Millwall’s cup victims Bournemouth was their first away point in six matches. The last time Watford notched an away victory was all the way back on 16th October.

Being a Premier League side, Watford have of course been made the favourites here but I would certainly think twice about backing them. With his side so out of form in the league, I imagine Mazzarri will rotate his squad for this cup tie and I am not convinced that they will be firing on all cylinders at The Den.

Millwall have already taken one scalp this season and will definitely fancy their chances of making that two against this out-of-form Hornets side. Backing the Lions at 21/10 looks like a really good option here given the circumstances.

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