Manchester City v Southampton Betting Tips

A few weeks ago you would have bet your house on Manchester City to beat Southampton, however, after City’s recent dip, along with Southampton’s recent improvement, this match could be closer than you think.

Manchester City’s winless streak now stretches to four matches in all competitions after defeat against manager Pep Guardiola’s former club Barcelona on Wednesday night in the Champions League. Whilst English media have got a bit over excitable about Guardiola’s reign at Manchester City so far, I have to say that I have been a bit more skeptical. Despite what many pundits seem to think, the 45-year-old’s arrival at Eastlands is not the second coming of Jesus and Wednesday night showed that.

He is obviously doing something right, but something that we have not seen before? Absolutely not.

Of course City are top of the Premier League for a reason – they have no doubt been the best team so far this campaign, although this is relatively easy with the squad they have. However, it seems teams have worked out ways of taking points from the title favourites. Firstly we saw Tottenham implement the high-pressing game to great effect before Everton sat off and then broke well on the counter.

Their 4-0 defeat to Barcelona on Wednesday night showed that, whilst they may be the best in the Premier League, there is still a long way to come to match Europe’s top teams.

Having said that, apart from last weekend’s draw against Everton, they have a 100% record in the Premier League at home.

Going forward is clearly where City excel and it is no surprise that they are the joint-top Premier League scorers with 18. However, at the back they look a bit rocky. Claudio Bravo was brought in for his ability with the ball at his feet but it seems that the City defenders lack a bit of confidence in the Chilean and they perhaps miss an authoritative goalkeeper – for example Joe Hart.

There is no doubt that, despite his error against Barca on Wednesday,  Bravo will keep his place in the starting XI for the visit of Southampton. But, there is certainly a big concern over that City defence which has not kept a clean sheet for six matches and conceded goals against lowly Sunderland and West Ham United at home earlier in the season.

Having said all that, I will still be very surprised if City do not come out on top here.

Despite a bad start to the season, things are going well on the south coast and Southampton have dramatically improved in recent weeks. After supposedly being under pressure earlier in the campaign, manager Claude Puel must be credited with this excellent revival and they are currently undefeated in four matches in the league and had not lost in seven matches in all competitions until Thursday night’s defeat to European giants Inter Milan in the Europa League.

The Saints should never have lost that game having dominated the match for the entire 90 minutes, however, it just goes to show that if you do not take your chances, you will be punished.

Southampton’s form at St. Mary’s Stadium is what has helped them do so well since their promotion to the Premier League in 2012. That home record is still un-blotched this season and they have not lost a match at St. Mary’s since a narrow 2-1 loss to Chelsea in February. However, their form on the road has been pretty poor for the last 12 months or so with Southampton winning under 30% of their away matches in that time. Manchester City away is hardly the fixture that is likely to see that percentage rise.

City will be looking to take advantage of their good home record to put right the wrongs of recent weeks and, with the Saints not being great on the road, I have gone with the Citizens to win both halves at a very profitable 53/20.

However, as previously mentioned, Manchester City’s defence cannot be trusted and, with Southampton looking a real threat when they go forward with the likes of Charlie Austin and Nathan Redmond, I think we could see Southampton grab an away goal at the Etihad.

You can more than double your money with by combining a City win and ‘Both Teams to Score’ at 21/10 and this is definitely a bet to be on.

Finally I have gone with Southampton defender Virgil Van Dijk to be shown a card at 3/1. The Dutchman has been booked more than any other Saints player this season (3) – two thirds of them coming away from home. Going up against a Manchester City forward line who invite late tackles with their intricate passing in and around the penalty area, we could easily see the former Celtic man go into the book.

Furthermore, he averages a booking every 240 minutes and, with his last yellow coming two matches ago, he is due another one.

See all of Sunday’s tips here.