Horse Racing Tips: Saturday 21st January 2017
12:50 Lingfield – Dutiful Son @ 8/1
Having failed to produce the goods last time out, Simon Dow’s Dutiful Son drops into a race here that, on his best form, should be well within his capabilities.
This seven-year-old is one who’s hard to catch right, but, having slid down to what looks a very workable mark of 80 (5lbs below last winning mark), this is definitely the sort of race where he can compete.
Having previously run with plenty of credit at a better level, Dutiful Son is three times a winner at Class 4 level. What’s more, he’s twice won from higher marks and in eight attempts he’s only finished outside of the place on two occasions when running in this grade.
There are a couple of pieces of Lingfield form in his profile which suggest a race of this nature should be right up his street, while the booking of Adam Kirby is definitely noteworthy.
It’s definitely fair to say that in two runs so far this season, Dutiful Son has disappointed, but he should certainly be better off in terms of fitness and in a race that doesn’t look all that strong, for a trainer who’s previously won this contest, the gelding is worth supporting at 8/1.
14:25 Ascot – Gibralfaro @ 9/1 (each-way)
There’s plenty of decent racing at Ascot on Saturday, but the 14:25 stands out as a good betting opportunity with Alan King’s Gibralfaro being the selection.
The five-year-old impressed when winning a couple of novice events at the start of last season (one at this venue) and, despite not winning as of yet this time around, has run with plenty of credit on three starts this campaign, especially when upped in trip last time out.
Having finished 3rd in a pair of Class 2 handicaps over two miles back in October, the gelding was upped to 2m 4f at Newbury in November and seemed to relish it. He traveled nicely throughout before keeping on well at the death to finish 2nd. On balance, that race probably contained a tad more depth than this contest so it’s easy to see him going well once again.
There are a couple in here who’re likely to be well-backed on the premise that they’ll be able to take a step-up in class in their stride, but that’s never guaranteed, while there’s definite question marks over a few of the others.
Gibralfaro – for a trainer and jockey who have a very good combined strike rate at Ascot – has proven that he can cut it at this level and looks as though he should be capable of running another big race at a decent price.
16:15 Lingfield – Noble Deed @ 16/1 (each-way)
The last at Lingfield certainly looks like a typically competitive Class 6 handicap and, in truth, there a plenty who’re in with chances. However, one who catches the eye at a big price, having run a better race last time out than the bare figures suggest, is Noble Deed.
Michael Attwater’s C&D winner hasn’t won since February 2016, but his handicap rating continues to fall (so much so that he’s now 9lb below his last winning mark) and he’ll be running in what looks the right sort of race here.
It’s acceptable that the gelding ran no sort of race in a Class 4 event on reappearance, but his performance last time out was a step in the right direction. From what was a poor position, he managed to get within two lengths of the horse who’s actually favourite for this race. With Joe Fanning in the saddle this time around, it would be no surprise if, with better positioning, Noble Deed reversed the form with that rival.
It’s also particularly interesting that the seven-year-old’s most recent win came over C&D in a stronger race. With this in mind, it’s hard to imagine that a contest like this, off a mark as low as 66, not being within his grasp.
Admittedly stall 11 isn’t exactly ideal, but under the canny stewardship of Joe Fanning – a jockey who’s no stranger when it comes getting horses well positioned up with the pace – it’s fancied that Noble Deed can certainly outrun his price-tag and is, therefore, worthy of an each-way punt.
See all of our current tips here.
Thanks for your help!
We appreciate your alertness!
You've successfully followed this author. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
You've successfully followed this expert. You'll get notifications of his new tips on your registered e-mail.
This means that you will no longer receive notifications about new posts by this author to your e-mail address.
You will no longer be notified of this expert's new tips.