Horse Racing Tips: 30th November 2016

13:10 Lingfield – Reign On @ 8/1

In the 13:10 at Lingfield, Ralph Beckett’s Reign On looks as though he’s been found a good opportunity to land his second career win.

Having won on his second racecourse appearance back in May, this two-year-old hasn’t really done much since, but ran with real credit at Wolverhampton last time out – shaping as though winning a race of today’s nature is well within his capabilities.

That Wolverhampton race was the first time this gelding had dropped into Class 5 company and he performed well for it. Over six furlongs, he came from behind to run on well, eventually finishing a close-up 4th. The three horses that finished ahead of him got the jump and it’s fair to say that Reign On did well to close what was a three-to-four length gap around the furlong marker (finishing just a neck behind the 3rd placed horse).

The manner in which he stayed on suggests that today’s extra furlong could be a real positive. On top of this, although this is a 14-runner event, there’s nothing in this field as good as the winner from that Wolverhampton contest and thus with the right race tactics, Reign On ought to be putting a bold bid here. The fact that trainer Ralph Beckett also has an impressive 29.27% strike rate at Lingfield is another reason to be optimistic.

Obviously this is a race for two-year-old’s and therefore the field are all somewhat unexposed and thus one runner might pull something extraordinary out the bag; however, Reign On is one of the more educated types and has proven that he can get seriously competitive at this level. At a decent price, with the step up looking as though it will suit, Ralph Beckett’s gelding is worth siding with.

14:00 Catterick – Lord Brendy @ 25/1 (each-way)

There’s a number of runners who look as though they could go well in this race, although Lord Brendy is the one who really sticks out as being overpriced and it would be no surprise at all if he ran a much bigger race than his odds suggest.

It’s fair to say that the eight-year-old ran no sort of race last time out after returning from a long absence, but, with that reappearance now under his belt, coupled with 41 days off since, Kenny Johnson’s gelding, who’s now back down to his last winning mark, should be capable of better.

It would be interesting to see what sort of price this horse would be if he’d had a couple more runs in recent times – on some of his better form he looks one of the likelier types. His Class 4 chase record of 3F3222 reads well, especially for a 25/1 outsider of the field (early market), while he’s also recorded a win at Class 3 level – a race that, on paper at least, was certainly superior to this one.

Several of Lord Brendy’s better performances have come on good ground around tracks that share both a tight and undulating nature with Catterick, while he also prefers going left-handed. His win at Kelso back in April 2015, shows both that he’s capable of being a big player in a race such as this and that he stays slightly further. In addition, he’s also performed with credit around this track on two previous occasions. Having chased home a winner over 19 furlongs two season back, he followed up by finishing 3rd over C&D in a Class 3 event. The interesting thing here is that at least the winner of that contest is far better than anything in this race and so this is another piece of form that suggests he’s certainly not without a chance here.

All things considered, if you dig a little deeper with this horse, it would be hard to conclude anything other than the fact that he’s got to have a better chance than his price-tag suggests and, as a result, he definitely warrants some each-way support.

14:50 Ffos Las – Southport @ 4/1 

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ runner has done very little wrong so far and he might just have been found the ideal opportunity here to make it two wins from three runs over timber.

This lightly raced gelding made light work of his first assignment over hurdles back in October and was seen running a pleasing race when finishing 2nd to a fellow improver (one who was in strong form) at this course last time out. It would be fair to say that his latest run showcased improvement and it would be no surprise if we saw him advance further here.

The manner in which he easily came clear over a slightly extended two miles on debut suggests that the step up in trip here will suit, while his staying on finish last time out didn’t exactly suggest otherwise. The four-year-old also looked as though he relished the softer ground on debut and so a return to such a surface here looks in favour too.

In terms of opposition, this doesn’t look a strong race and it’s actually slightly surprising that Southport isn’t vying for favourtism in the early betting. Super Sam looks far too short at 11/8, especially since there’s no guarantee he’ll repeat the form shown when winning a weaker contest last time out, while there’s plenty of question marks surrounding the other runners.

Based on what we’ve seen from this horse so far, it’s likely that there’s more to come, although even a mere repeat of the level of form shown last time out would surely see him go close. At the prices, Southport is the one to be on.

See Wednesday’s football tips here.