Horse Racing Tips: 29th November 2016

14:00 Southwell – Howaboutnever @ 9/1

Despite being just a five runner event, the 14:00 at Southwell is an interesting contest. The early betting revolves all around the younger three horses in the field; however, Roger Teal’s entrant makes plenty of appeal at what looks a very generous 9/1 in the early market.

It’s true that this gelding ran no sort of race whatsoever on his reappearance earlier this month, but that was a warm (15 runner) Class 3 contest at Cheltenham – not a five runner Class 4 at Southwell. That raced was more than likely used for fitness purposes anyway and with that now under his belt, Howaboutnever could once again get competitive.

In terms of today’s contest, the eight-year-old is of interest based on a number of eye-catching pieces of form. His record at Class 4 level over timber reads: 6573212 and he’s yet to finish outside the top two when racing over three miles (or further). The two pieces of form that really stand out are two runs from last December. In a similar looking contest to this one, Howaboutnever ran a pleasing race to finish second, before going on to win a contest that looks almost identical to this one at Warwick.

Following on from those two decent efforts at the back end of last year, his win in a Class 3 event over a lesser trip at Newbury back in March also looks good form. In fact, form-wise, it’s probably the best on offer in this field. Under today’s apprentice rider, the eight-year-old beat a number of rivals who’re better than anything in this contest, winning the race in good style. You’d have to feel that similar form here would make him hard to beat.

If we’re being honest, there’s question marks over all the runners in this field. The first three in the betting are expected to improve but, as we know, this in never guaranteed, while Big Water, who does look as though he’s on a lenient mark, doesn’t appear to be crying out for this extra distance, plus most of his better performance were at testing tracks.

In relation to this contest, Howaboutnever has some very good form in the book and, with a handy 7lb being taken off, he looks overpriced at 9/1. Roger Teal’s gelding is well worth backing in the hope that he leaves his reappearance behind and finds something like the form shown around this time last year.

15:40 Lingfield – Scooter Boy @ 6/1 

The last race at Lingfield would appear to be all about Greyed A. Dr Newland’s horse could well be on the up after a reasonable 2nd last time out, but, with marked improvement not a certainty, 15/8 looks far too short.

One horse who does stand out is Scooter Boy. Alex Hales’ seven-year-old looks one of the better horses in this field, in terms of ability at least, and recently shaped as though a race of this nature would be well within his capabilities.

In just five starts over timber, this gelding has shown plenty of promise. He won a Huntingdon maiden back in January, before running a couple of reasonable efforts in a pair of Class 4 events in February and March that culminated in him earning a handicap rating of 117.

After 240 days off, Scooter Boy returned to action at Uttoxeter just over two weeks ago in a Class 3 event over slightly further. Considering that was both his first run of the season and a much stronger event than this one, his 3rd place effort looks like very good form. Having made smooth headway, he came through to lead over the second last flight before tiring somewhat after the last. The manner in which he came through the pack against a decent field definitely caught the eye, especially if we consider that weaker opposition will be faced here.

Being his first run of the season, it would be no surprise if the gelding had a little bit more to offer now – at the very least he ought to have come on in terms of fitness. Couple this with the slight drop in distance and the likely heavier ground (only win came on soft-to-heavy) and there really is plenty to like about Scooter Boy’s chances.

If this horse was chalked up as favourite, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise and thus, at odds of 6/1, he definitely makes appeal in a race that probably won’t take much winning.

All things considered, having put in a very pleasing effort in a better race 16 days ago, Scooter Boy should go well and, if up for it, he should be more than capable of winning a race such as this.

15:50 Newcastle – Saint Helena @ 8/1

The 15:50 at Newcastle is a weak-looking race – one that certainly won’t take much winning. The one to be on, at a price that looks too big, is Saint Helena.

Mark Gillard’s eight-year-old has fallen to an attractive looking mark (61), one that she’s previously won from and, in a race such as this, she really ought to be getting seriously competitive.

With just the six runners, this race appears to be a Class 5 in name only – in other words it’s a race run by animals who’re generally seen competing at Class 6 level. The one exception to this perhaps is Saint Helena. On her day, this mare, who’s by far the most experience horse in this field, has been known to hold her own in Class 5 events, but when it comes to Class 6 she’s often found herself right there at the business end.

Against similar competition than she’ll face here, Saint Helena has a Class 6 record over a mile of: 121. All three of those runs came at Bath back in April, May and June. The last of those efforts, from a handicap rating of 64, saw her comfortably beat a field of horses whose marks ranged from the mid 60’s to mid 50’s. Other than the top weight (who doesn’t look as though she warrants a mark of 70) all of her rivals here run off a rating of 56, three of which are due to go down. In other words, this is real low-grade stuff and if Saint Helena repeats some of her better form, her connections will probably be disappointed if she fails to win.

Having been off the track for a couple of months, she reappeared, once again at Bath, around five weeks ago and ran a reasonable effort (beaten five lengths) in a much hotter contest. Providing she is tuned up ahead of this, there really does seem no reason why she can’t run a big, big race.

It really is difficult to see why Saint Helena is as big as 8’s in the early betting. She may not be a frequent all-weather winner (just one win at Wolverhampton to her name), but, against these five opponents, she shouldn’t exactly need a career best performance and looks hard to oppose.

Quite simply, at odds of 8/1, the mare is definitely one to be on. We’re talking about a very weak contest and, on some of her better form, Saint Helena should be right up there.

See more tips here.