Europa League Final: Stats suggest pair closely matched but also expose poor disciplinary record

Of the 64 teams that entered the group stages of this competition back in September 2016, it is Ajax and Manchester United – two teams who were once considered giants on the continental stage – who’ve made the final in Sweden.

If the betting is anything to go by – United are a best price of 17/20 to win the game in 90 minutes – then the English outfit are massive favourites and really ought to be getting the job done. However, as the graphic below shows, based on their exploits in this competition so far, the pair look much more closely matched than the pre-game betting suggests.

As the above graphic illustrates, the pair are closely matched on many of the basic stats. United may have claimed an extra victory over the course of the competition but since they’re both in the final that’s hardly relevant, while they match up nicely in many other aspects such as clean sheets and number of times failed to score.

There are of course two areas where the form of this pair contrasts. Firstly, Ajax have conceded almost double the amount of goals. Under Mourinho, United have become associated with a conservative playing style, one that, like all good Mourinho teams, focuses on organisation and keeping things nice and tight. With this in mind, it’s not overly surprising that the English club come out on top in this respect. What’s more, given their overall attacking nature, which means space is often left in behind, Ajax are bound to concede a few goals, although such a style certainly hasn’t hampered their progress. It will be interesting to see how things pan out when these two contrasting styles come head-to-head on Wednesday night. United might’ve made a name for themselves as being hard to beat, but will they be able to contain an Ajax attack that managed to stick five away in the semis?

What is perhaps more eye-catching when looking at the above stats is the fact that Ajax have received more than double the number of yellow cards, and exactly double the amount of red cards. In fact, Ajax have received more yellow cards than any other Europa League team this season, and not just more, a ridiculous amount more. With a total of 49 cards to their name, the Dutch outfit are easily leading the way in terms of bookings and red cards with the already eliminated Anderlecht next on the list with 29.

From a betting point of view, cards certainly looks as though it’s an angle to take. Ajax have shown a clear tendency to rack up the offences throughout this competition and such a habit is only likely to be magnified under the tense conditions of a final, especially if United attempt to frustrate the Dutch side.

There are three players in particular who stand out as worthy selections on the ‘To be Shown a Card’ market. Midfielder Davy Klaasen has received five yellow cards throughout the competition so far, including one against Lyon in the semis, while Davinson Sánchez has received four having played a game less. At 5/2 and 9/4 respectively, there’s definitely a slice of value to be had by backing each of the aforementioned players to receive a card during the match. On top of this, the defensive duo of Joël Veltman and Kenny Tete, who’ve received eight cards between them in 17 Europa League appearances combined, are also worth considering. However, only one of this pair is likely to play as they both operate primarily at right back. Either way, whoever gets the nod, at the prices quoted, is certainly worth backing to see a card of some description.

One final selection that follows the same disciplinary theme is ‘Over 4.5 Total Cards’. Tensions were raised during the second-leg of the semi-finals for both of this pair with a total of 16 cards shown across the two fixtures and, given the nature of this match, coupled with Ajax’s apparent love for ill-discipline, it really would be no surprise if a similar situation arose here.

More Ajax v Manchester United tips can be found here.