Bulgaria v Sweden Betting Tips: Hosts to upset the odds

Both of these sides have a lot to play for coming into this match with Bulgaria hoping to catch up with the qualification hopefuls whilst Sweden are looking to keep their spot at the top of the group.

Bulgaria lost their last qualifier away at Belarus, causing them to lose a rather large amount of ground, and they are now four points behind Sweden and France – who occupy the top two spots of Group A. However, they have a great chance to make up some of that lost ground on Thursday night.

The Lions have been poor at the back in this qualification campaign and their Goals Against record of 12 is the second-worst in their group. Having said that, it is worth mentioning that they have kept two clean sheets in their last three competitive outings. In terms of going forward, Bulgaria have done well in the last year or so and have found the back of the net in all but one of their matches since June 2016.

The Bulgarians have been sublime in their own backyard during this campaign with maximum points taken from their three home games so far. This excellent run means they have now won every single one of their competitive home matches since September 2015 – extending back to Euro 2016 qualifiers. Additionally, in terms of World Cup qualifying, Bulgaria have lost just one home match since June 2005, winning over 66% of those games.

With so many people making France heavy favourites for next year’s World Cup in Russia, it is easy to forget that it is actually Sweden who top Group A at the moment – ahead of France on Goal Difference.

Janne Andersson has never managed or even played outside of Sweden, but he has got his national team playing excellent football at both ends of the pitch in this qualifying campaign. Andersson’s side have scored 12 and conceded just four – these statistics are the second-best and best respectively in Group A. Additionally, including friendly matches, Sweden have found the back of the net in every match during Andersson’s tenure.

Despite the fact all seems to be going well for Sweden at the moment, their competitive away form is a concern. I am not saying that Bulgaria are a ‘big’ side in international football, however, their home form cannot be ignored. With this in mind, we must be reminded that Sweden have not beaten a so-called ‘big’ side in a competitive away match for a long time. Arguably since 2001 when they beat Turkey in a World Cup qualifier – Turkey reached the World Cup semi-finals a year later.

Historically, Sweden have an excellent record against Bulgaria and have in fact won every meeting since 1993. However, Bulgaria’s home form is hard to ignore and I think Sweden could slip up here in what is likely to be a difficult match. Bulgaria to Win is highly profitable at 9/2.