Bookmaker Ratings v WhoScored Tipster Battle: Round 13

Martin’s Tip:

Pavel is right to point towards the fact that you should never overlook an underdog in such an important, one-off game for both clubs, but Manchester United will be motivated, without question. It’s 12 years since they lifted the FA Cup, stretching long into the Sir Alex Ferguson era, and Louis van Gaal will want to sign off on a high if he is, as expected, in line for the chop. Indeed, a defeat in the final against Palace would surely seal his fate.

Moreover, it’s gone somewhat unnoticed that United actually ended the season in decent form and, in fact, only Leicester and Southampton (both 12) won more league matches in 2016. When you factor in all competitions, no Premier League team has tasted victory as much as Van Gaal’s side (17 times) since the turn of the year. While Palace’s cup run has been a godsend given their well-publicised dip in form in England’s top-flight, I don’t share Pavel’s faith in the Eagles in this one. His tip of a 0-0 draw at half-time, however, looks a far safer bet…

Like Pavel, I don’t see too much goalmouth action in the opening exchanges this Saturday. Much of United’s success this year has been built from a solid defensive record, with no team conceding fewer goals in the Premier League in 2015/16 (35). Of the aforementioned 17 wins United have accrued in all competitions in 2016, ten have come without conceding and I’m backing a repeat this weekend against a Palace side that has scored just once in their 6 meetings with the Red Devils since returning to the top-flight.

The other real positive for Louis van Gaal and, in particular, the United fans as they look ahead to the future has been the displays of Anthony Martial. After a mid-season lull having hit the ground running at Old Trafford, the young Frenchman has gone on to score 17 goals in all competitions for the club. The 20-year old earned his side a place in the final with a last gasp winner against Everton, meaning he already has a goal to his name at Wembley, and ended the campaign with 4 goals in his last 4 games. As a result my tips are Martial to score anytime @ 23/10 and United to win to nil @ 7/5 with William Hill.

Pavel’s Tip:

United’s passage to the final was somewhat easier: Sheffield United, Derby, Shrewsbury Town and at last West Ham and Everton. They might have had an easier run through, but on league standings United are somewhat better than today’s rivals. However, without lifting this trophy the 15/16 campaign will almost certainly be regarded as a poor one, and ultimately one that ended in failure for Van Gaal and his team.

Alan Pardew’s team is also desperate to win the FA Cup, as this would put a real positive spin on their season. We remember the 07/08 and 12/13 Cup finals, when Portsmouth and Wigan Athletic were the unexpected winners. And after all the FA Cup is a tournament where courage and strength often prevail. Winning this final is also a passage through to European football next season, something that should greatly motivate Palace, but not really United as they have already secured a Europa League spot.

The odds on a Palace win are just too tempting to miss – 4/1. The bookmakers are underestimating the magic of the FA Cup.

We also think that both teams will play it safe in the 1st half. The stakes are too high for teams to go racing off from the start and each team is likely to try and feel their way into the game. With this in mind, under 0.5 goals 1st half goals at 13/8 with William Hill looks a good bet.