Atletico Madrid – Bayern Munich. Alexander Vishnevskiy’s prediction

It’s tempting to go for under 2.5 goals here, because teams are often cautious in the 1st leg of a semi-final. The game between Manchester City and Real Madrid yesterday was a great example of this. And the fact that this involves a side who boast such defensive prowess at home makes under 2.5 even more appealing. Atletico Madrid have a fantastic record when it comes to keeping clean sheets at the Vicente Calderon this season. It’s also very likely that Diego Simeone will be happy with a draw at home, knowing that his side can definitely threaten in the away leg. However, the odds on under 2.5 goals are too low, and therefore there is no value to be had.

The bet to be on is a first half draw at 1.80. You could also bet on a 0-0 first half score at a better price, but the possibility of goals can’t be completely ruled out. Atletico always begin such games by pressing high up the pitch, forcing their opponents to make errors, just as they did against Barcelona in the quarter-finals.

Atletico will be without their defensive warrior Diego Godin, who misses the game through injury, which only bodes well for Bayern Munich’s scoring chances. So a 1:1 draw in the first half really can’t be ruled out. That’s why I’m going for a draw (not a scoreless draw) before the break.

Bayern Munich are the favourites for this semi-final, but this is perhaps a little unjust. I think that the Spanish team are certainly underestimated here and Draw no bet – Atletico at 2.00 also looks a good bet.