Amkar Perm v Lokomotiv Moscow Betting Tips

This match is between my choice of both the over and under achievers in the Russian Premier League this season. With this in mind the prices on the markets were a pleasant surprise.

Amkar are my overachievers of the campaign so far. Usually stuck in and around mid-table, Gadzhi Gadzhiyev’s team have found a way this season to convert what would usually be draws into wins. This may be down to Amkar’s new system which utilises three central defenders – the new fashion in the Russian Premier League – which has allowed the midfield to be a bit more flexible when going forward.

The beauty of Amkar is they are perfect at their system and do not go beyond their limits. The Perm side will never be the sort of team that scores a lot of goals, as they much prefer rely on their ever solid defence. They may have only scored eight goals this season but they have not lost a single game that they have scored in – testament to their back-line.

Gadzhiyev’s side have an incredible home record this season with four wins out of a possible five whilst they have not conceded a goal at the Zvezda Stadion so far this campaign.

A struggling Lokomotiv side provide the perfect opposition for Amkar.

Yuri Semin’s side are undoubtedly the disappointment of the season so far. One of Russia’s biggest clubs should easily be challenging for Europe but are currently struggling and sit in the relegation play-off places. If they are not careful they could be this season’s Dinamo Moscow – who suffered a surprising relegation last year.

The Railroaders have had attendance problems recently and are currently averaging about 9,000 in a 28,000 capacity stadium at Stadion Lokomotiv. The fans are hardly going to come flocking back with the team in such dire straits. Although the defence looks pretty good (and will always be reliable with the likes of Vedran Corluka and Vitaly Denisov) with just eight goals conceded, they have been woeful up-front and are without a prolific goalscorer.

Their move to sign Rubin Kazan striker Igor Portnyagin in the summer for a ridiculously inflated £2.5m was ludicrous. The 27-year-old has had a nothing career so far and it seems Lokomotiv were desperate to sign any striker with a Russian passport during the last transfer window – unsurprisingly he has not found the back of the net in the league this season.

The fact that Portnyagin is injured until November means Lokomotiv will have to go with another striker – most likely another non-goalscorer in the form of Petar Skuletic who has not scored since mid-August.

More shocking evidence for the lack of firepower this season is that Lokomotiv have only scored one goal from open play – the others have been four penalties and a free-kick.

Furthermore, they are on a bad run on the road, losing their last two matches, and I cannot see that changing here against another top-five side in Amkar.

All of the above is why the odds offered on this match really shocked me. Lokomotiv have been made the overwhelming favourites by the bookmakers and I just do not understand why – there is absolutely no evidence that points towards a Railroaders win.

Of course this is great news for punters, who should certainly be looking to take advantage of this situation.

Firstly I would back the simple Amkar win at 11/5. Such a price really does seem ridiculous, but, nevertheless, I am confident Amkar can get the job done and would go even further and back Gadzhiyev’s men to win without conceding against an impotent Lokomotiv at a very appealing 16/5.

See more tips here.