NBA live betting – Part 3

Pavel
Krombet

“All-Star Weekend is over, our balance of wins and losses is 20-30 and we just traded our two strongest players. What’s next?”

 

NBA.-Part-4

There is no relegation in the NBA. Each year the same teams race for the grand prize. The only difference is that the season’s worst teams get the chance to improve their line-ups with the best young players of the world. What can the team with less than 40% wins after 2/3 of the championship fight for? Only the lower place which would allow getting more chances for the first draft numbers. That is when the fans’ nightmare and gamblers’ dream begin.

Every year, the teams, having less than 40%  wins, start the race for the worst results in the last third of the championship. That means you have to bet on the handicap of such teams’ opponents. Especially during home matches. Especially when the previous match was lost in the last seconds or even won and the team was criticized by general manager, screaming: “What the hell are you doing? How are we gonna get a new LeBron if you gonna win?!” Such matches give around 60% of wins and more than 12% profit. When the first half of the championship has finished and weak middlemen have traded their leaders to bigger clubs, the teams will start deliberately losing matches to get future NBA stars like Jahlil Okafor or Karl Anthony Towns.NBA.-Part-5

Live betting here is rather easy. Such teams are ready to lose games, but are not ready for continuous losses. If in the first two or three quarters there was a fight, you can boldly bet on the favourite in the end. This, in the end of the day, plays for both sides – one more victory for the favourite and one more step to better draft pick for the outsider.

Schedule

Superhuman loads. Everyday matches. This factor becomes less and less important in modern sports due to the development of effective technology of sportsmen’ recovery. But still it can and shall be used. Is it possible not to account for such significant factor as schedule in a league where average difference between two teams amounts to 0.1 points for 100 possessions?!

You need to prepare for such matches beforehand. The schedule is known in the beginning of the season. When the home team is playing a) its 4th match in 5 days and/or 5th match in 7 days and/or 7th match for 11 days; b) second match in two days; c) offered total for the match exceeds 195 you can boldly watch the game looking for a bet-on-guests moment. There will certainly be one when the tired team will start losing.

Referees

It is not really hard to believe there are referees manipulating the game. This is really convenient for them A couple of whistles and the game is yours. But we cannot rely on such subjective things as ears and eyes. Even if we see unbalanced judging we cannot be sure it will go on. But we can be sure than some referees in certain conditions may make good money for us.

One of the most famous observations in basketball NBA betting is betting on  guests when the match is refereed by Joey Crawford, one of the most profitable guest judges. He adores helping visitors losing after the first half to catch up in the second one. And he is not alone in that: Brian Forte, Tony Brothers, Monty McCutchen and Tony Brown have done the same.NBA.-Part-6

If we take a deeper look at these five judges, we will find an interesting peculiarity. The system works better at the stadiums where the most dire fans gather: Nicks, Celtics, Lakers, Kings and some others. This is a really intriguing trend known for a long time but not quite popular and thus, neglected by bookmakers. This should be used.

In live betting it is important to remember the following: don’t be afraid of betting on the weak, don’t be afraid of high odds, don’t underestimate the match schedule, don’t take judges out of your predictions and don’t forget team objectives. Hypothetically, Philadelphia can win a visiting game against Golden State with second half odds of 10. Especially when Joey Crawford is the judge.

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