NBA live betting – Part 2

Pavel
Krombet

“I definitely like Golden State’s home match vs. San Antonio today. But -7 handicap is killing me. No desire whatsoever to go into that match”.

leba

You should not ever forget that NBA has gathered the best players on the planet. There are only 360 people in the active line-ups of 30 teams. 360 people of more than 7 billion living on the Earth. Right, in play-offs some teams are better than others. But when 12 players are on fire, they are able to outplay anyone. Even the worst team in NBA’s history, Charlotte Bobcats, won 7 out of 66, or 10.6%, matches in 2012.

High negative handicap (more common for domestic teams) could be often reduced to acceptable level in the first half of the match. Games where the favourite breaks away within the first minutes are quite rare. The teams are often equal both during the first and the second quarter and sometimes this rivalry goes to the fourth one. You should not underestimate NBA teams or be scared of waiting. The longer you watch and study the market the more chances you have to find and use a mistake made by a certain bookmaker.

About mistakes. The main rule is to always look for the higher odds. That is a rule every player making any type of bets should follow. Especially it shall be used in live-betting where the value range is much higher.

East and West. This is the most fruitful market in the NBA. And what is the most pleasant, it is rather frequent. It’s been for more than 5 years now given the misbalance of powers in the NBA. It is a pain in the bookmakers’ neck. On one hand bookies often overestimate Eastern conference teams playing home. On the other hand the mentioned Eastern teams are really underestimated when they play away.  This should be used. Here are the systems:

Eastern team plays an away game with Western team and loses 4 to 18 points after the first half. It is worth betting on second-half win of the Eastern team. Don’t bet on their victory in the match. Bet only on the second half, which they are unlikely to lose with the difference of more than 2 points. Winning probability is 58% with around 15% profit.

Example: away game of Bucks vs. Rockets is a good one. Rockets  were up by 12 after the first half. Bucks to win the second half were estimated with 1.85 odds. Bucks won the second half 55-49.

It’s also worth betting on the second half win of the Eastern team vs Western team with 6 to 11 odds. Bookies give such odds  when the outsider suddenly shows some strong play in the first half. Bookmakers don’t believe in match ending the same way and skyrocket the odds. Such situations are rare but way too effective. Approximately every fourth bet wins; due to high odds the profitability is around 75%.

Example: Boston lost the first half to Golden State 49-56. Due to initially high handicaps for the Warriors, bookmakers raised the odds on Celtics triumph in the second half to 6. Boston won the second half 62-58, lost the whole match, but brought us money.

Betting on small positive handicap for the team losing the visiting game to the Eastern opponent is an amazingly successful system. Strong Eastern teams, such as Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Indiana, Boston and Miami often fall victims of the most interesting trends of NBA. The team winning 10 points plays 20% weaker than the team losing 10 points. (Yahoo survey carried out by Justin Rao and Matthew Goldman). This means that after winning 10-24 points after 24 minutes of play, these average performers are unlikely to increase their lead.  That’s why you should bet on the losing team to win the second half. The winning probability is 65% with 25% profitability.

Recent example: Boston lost 7 points after the first half in a visiting game with Milwaukee. Boston were given +1.5 handicap on the second half and 3.05 to win the match. Celtics won the second half 47-43, lost the game, but we won again.

Note: when using the systems above, you should consider the month of the game. Depending on this you should either reduce your bets or put pedal to the metal. Why? I’ll tell you in the final part.

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